Examine it from 1978 (the year China adopted a capitalist economic Essay

Examine it from 1978 (the year China adopted a capitalist economic system) to present. Analyzing the country from the 1990s to t - Essay Example Introduction Before 1976, China’s economic ideology was purely communism. The death of Mao Zedong in 1976 precipitated leadership decisions, which were significant. No one would foretell that the end of Maoist Socialism in China would result into what modern scholars refer to as China’s great transformation (Wang & Coase 1). China became capitalist and mostly productive (Shaw 1). It became one of the most democratic income distributors to the rest of the world. Despite the rise of the Chinese economy, existing statistics reveal that most Chinese are still poor; in fact, most Chinese still face challenges in exercising their freedom and protecting their rights. Tony 1 postulates that one of the most overlooked astounding narratives about China is that, since the economic resurgence of china in 1978, the country has become an unequal society to the extent that it rates high in the Asian continent. Since 1978, the Cina's Gini coefficient of general family income distributi on surpasses both Indonesia and India, and it is now approaching Malaysia and the Philippines, which are unequal in Asia. This paper seeks to document a hallmark feature of china’s capitalism, with close review as to how the economy has reformed. i. Politics and Policy Deng’s skeptical slogan of ‘Letting some Chinese get rich first’ marked the outset of inequality in China. This became a source of concern for his predecessors, who prompted political moves to distance themselves from their predecessor. Between 1995 and 2002, a development strategy, popularly known as ‘Great western Strategy’, which gave greater emphasis on investing in poor provinces, was adopted (Jane 1). The program also included alleviation of rural poverty through support to farm production, rural educational and training, and emigration into ecologically sustainable areas. The implementation of these policy initiatives has yet faced numerous challenges. For example, tax re bates for local governments tend to be biased towards urban areas, this leaves rural areas depressed out in the cold thus, not doing anything on the urban-rural gap. The complexity behind Chinese politics is worth noting. A debate as to whether the Chinese Government should worry about political destabilization to compact inequality is intriguing. The political elites, the protagonist’s side of Jiang, argue that it is not a pressing problem while Hu and Wen argue it is. With Hu and Wen ruminating openly that inequality is a threat to political stability, their opponents take comfort because they understand that the relationship between poverty and inequality, and protests against social movements are often attenuated (Tony 12). ii. Inequality and Poverty According to Shujie, Yao and associates, China’s largest component of inequality is best illustrated by the rural-urban gap. In 2002, for example, the average urban: rural per capita was expressed in the ratio 3: 1 (Bl echer & College 3), which economic analysts described as staggering, and almost unheard in developing nations. However, China’s extremely egalitarian distribution of land has reduced rural inequality, coupled with its policy on land reform and collectivization, the approach that those molded the collective land distribution to households in the 1980s, and the ongoing restrictions on the growth of a farmland market. Today, rural inequality in Chin

Fruit Ripening Essay Example for Free

Fruit Ripening Essay Placing fruit in a bag will help hasten the ripening for only a few fruits. Most fruits will not ripen (ever) once they have been picked. The only fruits that ripen once theyre picked are bananas, avocados, pears, mango, and kiwifruit. Ripeness in fruits is based on sugar content, not color, thus most tomatoes in grocery stores have no flavor because they were picked green and exposed to ethylene gas to induce color change. Tomatoes are what are known as a climacteric fruit which means theyll change appearance based on climactic conditions but they dont ripen. Yes, they continue to soften but thats simply the process of cell deterioration know as decomposition. Some fruits such as peaches, plums, etc. will seem to develop more sweetness as they sit on the counter but thats because theyre also losing moisture and the residual sugars are concentrating in the cell walls. Placing fruit in a paper bag helps to concentrate the levels of ethylene gas which is what helps induce the ripening of the above mentioned fruits (bananas/avocados, etc.). In fact, avocados and pears must be picked in order to ripen. Pears that are left on the tree will simply rot. As mentioned previously brown paper bags used to be something everyone had around their house so it was a commmon item before the switch to plastic bags. Have you ever noticed some people like red bell peppers and not green ones? The reason is due toripeness. Plant tissues communicate by means of hormones. Hormones are chemicals that are produced in one location that have an effect on cells in a different location. Most plant hormones are transported through the plant vascular system, but some, like ethylene, are released into the gaseous phase, or air. Ethylene is produced and released by rapidly-growing plant tissues. It is released by the growing tips of roots, flowers, damaged tissue, and ripening fruit. The hormone has multiple effects on plants. One is fruit ripening. When fruit ripens, the starch in the fleshy part of the fruit is converted to sugar. The sweeter fruit is more attractive to animals, so they will eat it and disperse the seeds. Ethylene initiates the reaction in which the starch is converted into sugar. Iodine solution binds to starch, but not to sugar, forming a dark-colored complex. You can estimate how ripe a fruit is by whether or not is is darkened after painting it with an iodine solution. Unripe fruit is starch y, so it will be dark.

A Glorious Plan :: essays research papers fc

M@ Hix A Glorious Plan When Germany was under a monetary crisis after having to pay reparations for World War I, people had turned to Adolf Hitler. He made promises of restoring Germany to its original form and many people were willing to support him. However, the failure of the Munich Putsch in 1923 had failed and had led to his imprisonment. Here, Hitler wrote a book, Mein Kampf, where he introduced his ideology of Germany, his aims and ambitions. (Giblin, 156) In January 1933, when Hitler was appointed chancellor and soon became sole dictator of Germany. He then put his aims to action. Hitler had three main aims in preparing Germany for war. His first goal was to tear up the Treaty of Versailles, which brought an end to WWI. This treaty blamed Germany for starting the war; it took away large amounts of land, money and materials from her, and cut her armed forces down to a minimum. (Hitler, 135) Hitler’s second aim was to unite all Germans into one single country. As there was millions of Germans scattered in neighboring countries such as Austria, Czechoslovakia and Poland, these countries would have to be brought under his control. (Ibid, 302) His third aim was to provide Germany with what he called â€Å"lebenstraum† or living space. He said that Germany was overcrowded and did not have enough food or raw materials for her needs. All three of these aims could only be achieved if Germany rearmed, massively increasing her armed forces. (Ibid, 370) Hitler fulfilled these aims by rearming Germany. In 1934, only a year after Hitler had come to power, he gave out a top-secret order for the armed forces to expand. The number was to increase from 100,000 to 300,000 men. The navy was to build two pocket battleships and six submarines. (Bailey, 78) Goering was to create an air force and secretly train pilots in civilian flying clubs. These were all forbidden by the Treaty of Versailles. (Kershaw, 147) In 1935, all was revealed when Hitler re-introduced conscription and that the army would be built up to 550,000 men. Three countries, Britain, France and Italy, signed an agreement condemning Hitler’s announcement. But no country took military action to stop this breach of the Treaty of Versailles. In 1936, Hitler ordered his army to march into the Rhineland. The Versailles treaty forbade the German army from going within 50 km of the River Rhine, so Hitler’s order was a deliberate challenge to this treaty.

Film Pre-Production Essay Essay

When planning a film production a lot of things need consideration, for example money is an important element that will be needed to fund the production of the film, with the crew/cast needing payment for their work. Props need buying and depending on the dialogue of the movie they may be quite expensive along with the equipment needed to record and edit the movie and the setting of where you are going to film whether it be public or private property. And also such things as accommodation, food and travel costs will need to be paid for, so dividing up the money for a production of a film plays a large role in pre-production along with where the source of the money is coming from, and if the source of the money allocates a budget you will need to get all of these resources within the range of the budget. Before production of the film you need to consider the genre, and what audience the genre of the film will apply to, for example horror movies are generally watched by a younger audience so you may want the storyline to be relatable to them with the cast being younger adults and them living lives younger people might live themselves (studying, party’s etc.). Also the setting should be considered to apply to the genre for example if the genre is sci-fi you may want the setting at some point to be on a space ship, or be futuristic. The time allocated plays a big role in preproduction, with things like editing after all the filming has taken place needing consideration, so the filming can’t take place right up to the deadline. Also things like time to shoot scenes needs to be planned, along with the availability of the cast throughout the project. Legal requirements are also a part of pre-production with music having to be used that isn’t copyrighted along with all health and safety laws remaining intact, or whoever is put in danger could sue the production company a large sum of money postponing or stopping the production of the film. Location permissions are also needed to be granted or again the owner of the location may sue if film there is released, and any other rules set by regulatory bodies within the production of a film should also be followed. Material also plays an important role in the planning of a film, with research on the film being needed making sure the story hasn’t been done before and if it has, how you can make your production stand out more individually. Also there will be certain generics of the genre you will want your film to follow so it can be distinguished as that genre which is being aimed at. Music that’s not copyright will need to be found or produced, most likely produced if you want the film to have its own theme song like with many big blockbusters.

Gadget Toys Case Write-Up Essay

Gadget Toy Company is faced with a choice between two options to reduce project time for their new toy line. Gadget must cut down project time in order to meet their Christmas deadline that is 19 weeks away. Analysis shows that there are two critical paths for the current process, which is 20 weeks long and includes the following critical activities: obtain funding approval (A), finalize engineering (B), build dies/tools (D), raw material delivery (K), initial production run (L), ship product (M), train workers (F), and de-bug process (G). See figure below. Gadget’s first option is to reduce the amount of product advertising. Although this might reduce cost, advertising (J) is not a critical activity and won’t reduce the total project time. Beyond that, cutting six weeks of advertising – the maximum amount – will result in an estimated 30% decrease in sales. This is hardly worth the lower costs for a new product launch, and advertising is necessary if Gadg et wants the children’s toy line to be popular beyond the Christmas season. Gadget’s second option is to ask the production manager to work weekends for faster tool building (D). Although this would cost the company $5000, Gadget Toy Co. should accept the offer. Tool building is a critical activity and the bottleneck in the process flow. The next longest path in the process flow is 16 weeks, resulting in a slack time of four weeks. By accepting the offer from the tool builder the critical paths can be reduced to 18 weeks and the product can be launched within the 19-week deadline. Process Paths Before Decision: AHJM = 1 + 1 + 12 + 1 = 15 weeks AHIKLM = 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 10 weeks ABDKLM = 1 + 1 + 12 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 20 weeks (critical path) ABDFGLM = 1 + 1 + 12 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 20 weeks (critical path) ACEFGLM = 1 + 8 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 16 weeks Process Paths Before Decision: AHJM = 1 + 1 + 12 + 1 = 15 weeks AHIKLM = 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 10 weeks ABDKLM = 1 + 1 + 12 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 20 weeks (critical path) ABDFGLM = 1 + 1 + 12 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 20 weeks (critical path) ACEFGLM = 1 + 8 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 16 weeks Gadget Flow Chart Total Time to Delivery 18 WEEKS Total Time to Delivery 18 WEEKS Raw Material Delivery (K) 2 WEEKS Raw Material Delivery (K) 2 WEEKS Train Workers (F) 1 WEEK Train Workers (F) 1 WEEK De-Bug Process (G) 1 WEEK De-Bug Process (G) 1 WEEK Initial Production Run (L) 3 WEEKS Initial Production Run (L) 3 WEEKS Ship Product (M) 1 WEEK Ship Product (M) 1 WEEK Finalize Packaging and Artwork (I) 2 WEEKS Finalize Packaging and Artwork (I) 2 WEEKS Advertise (J) 12 WEEKS Advertise (J) 12 WEEKS Install Equipment (E) 1 WEEK Install Equipment (E) 1 WEEK Build Dies/Tools 10 WEEKS (D) BOTTLENECK Build Dies/Tools 10 WEEKS (D) BOTTLENECK Establish Advertising Plan 1 WEEK (H) Establish Advertising Plan 1 WEEK (H) Finalize Engineering (B) 1 WEEK Finalize Engineering (B) 1 WEEK Deliver New Equipment (C) 8 WEEKs Deliver New Equipment (C) 8 WEEKs Obtain Funding Approval (A) 1 WEEK Obtain Funding Approval (A) 1 WEEK After Decision

Field Work essays

Field Work essays Many people go to the bar to relax after a long day of work. They sometimes meet up with friends or coworkers and discuss their day. People in public are very interesting in their interaction with others because nonverbal communication can be observed in virtually any situation. Bars are especially interesting because there are different personality labels. For example, there are the regulars who are there everyday at the same time, the couples who come before dinner to have their cocktails, and the drunks. The drunks are there no matter what time of day and stay for hours. The more interesting part in the observation is how the bartender is able to deal with all these different personality types. A bartender must be able to communicate with all of these personality types in order to do his job well. A good bartender must demonstrate and often alter his communication styles on a daily basis. The hypothesis is when visiting a sports bar, a male bartender, in general, will interact with his customers more effective than a female bartender. This is because males tend to know more about sports history than females do and male bartenders seem to relate to bar stories better than female bartenders. In sports bars, there is always some type of sporting event on the television. If a male bartender can have a conversation about the event on the television, he can then build a relationship with that customer and in turn keep the customer at his bar longer. This observation was conducted at Putters Bar and Grill at Pheasant Run Golf Course strictly to observe the bartender. The first visit was around three oclock in the afternoon on Friday. There were only four people at the bar. They were older men in their late 50s or early 60s. They had just come in from a round of golf. They were all drinking whiskey on the rocks and adding up their scorecards. The bartender, who is male poured their drinks and ...

America and Terrorism essays

America and Terrorism essays As I look at the Desmond Egan poem entitled Hiroshima, I dont get past the name without knowing that this to is a questioning on the righteousness of an American Governmental decision. It starts Hiroshima your shadow burns into the granite of history. I look at that and think, yes Japan has paid for its actions in a way no-one could forget, this showing the power and seriousness of America. Egan goes on and talks about the devastation that has been caused. I carry in my mind a glass bullet lodged deep the memory of that epicenter where one hundred thousand souls fused at an instant. I read this and thought of my glass bullet lodged in my memory, and it is the same glass bullet that is lodged in many Americans head too. The sight of two 110 floor buildings on fire, 5000 people being fused together, in 14000 degree flames of jet fuel but this not at a time of war. When we droped the bomb in Hiroshima it was during a time of war with attempt to stop world domination and communist ways. The Islamic extremist is the new "communist" of this century. With the same sense of righteousness and absolute faith they kill anyone who stands in the way of their idea of progress. Like the communist, they view anything that helps their cause, including killing, to be virtuous. They believe that the world will repose in peace under the true faith, Islam, and that those that dont accept this "peace" live in the Da es Harb, or the perpetual world of war. Likewise, when the communists speak of peace they mean world socialism. Those who opposed this "peace" live in the world of struggle. Like the communists, radical Islam misreads this country, our spirit, and our love of liberty. While they may score a couple of victories, based on their own twisted definition of the term, they will also inevitably fail. The communists believe that America will crumble over time. They plot to bring this about ...

Spring Phenology and Climate Change

Spring Phenology and Climate Change As spring arrives we notice the changing of seasons by the weather, but also by a host of natural events. Depending on where you live, the crocuses may poke through the snow, the killdeer may be back, or the cherry trees may bloom. There is an orderly sequence of events that seem to occur, with various spring flowers appearing in order, red maple buds bursting into new leaves, or the old lilac by the barn scenting the air. This seasonal cycle of natural phenomena is called phenology. Global climate change appears to be interfering with the phenology of many species, at the very heart of species interactions. What Is Phenology? In temperate regions like the northern half of the United States, there is comparatively little biological activity in winter. Most plants are dormant, and so are the insects feeding on them. In turn, animals that rely on these insects  such as bats and birds are hibernating or spending the cold months in more southerly locations. Ectotherms like reptiles and amphibians, which take their body warmth from their environment, also have active phases tied to the seasons. This long winter period constrains all the growing, breeding, and dispersing activities that plants and animals do to a short favorable window. That’s what makes spring so vibrant, with plants flowering and putting on new growth, insects emerging and breeding, and birds flying back to take advantage of this short-lived bounty. The onsets of each of these activities add up to so many phenological markers. What Triggers Phenological Events? Different organisms respond to different cues to initiate seasonal activities. Many plants will start growing leaves again after a set period of dormancy, which very roughly dictates the leaf-out window. Cue that more precisely determine when the buds break can be soil temperature, air temperature, or water availability. Similarly, temperature cues can promote the beginning of insect activity. Day length itself can be the operative trigger for some seasonal events. It is only when there are a sufficient number of daylight hours that reproductive hormones will be produced in many bird species. Why Are Scientists Concerned with Phenology? The most energy-demanding period in the life of most animals is when they reproduce. For that reason, it is to their advantage to coincide breeding (and for many, the raising of young) during a period when food is most abundant. Caterpillars should hatch just as the young tender leaves of oak tree emerge, before they harden and become less nutritious. Breeding songbirds need to time the hatching of their young just during that peak in caterpillar activity, so they can take advantage of this rich source of protein to feed their offspring. Many species have evolved to exploit peaks in resource availability, so all these seemingly independent phenological events are indeed part of a complex web of precise interactions. Disruptions in seasonal events can have profound effects on ecosystems. How Is Climate Change Affecting Phenology? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in a 2007 report, estimated that spring arrived earlier by 2.3 to 5.2 days per decade in the previous 30 years. Among hundreds of observed changes, the leafing out of ginkgo trees in Japan, the flowering of lilacs, and the arrival of warblers have all shifted earlier in the year. The problem is that not all these shifts happen at the same rate, if at all. For example: Winter moths have been timed to hatch just when the young oak leaves burst from their buds. With climate change, both have been happening earlier in the year, but significantly more so for the winter moth hatch. The young emerging caterpillars then starve and die.Some North American migratory songbirds have advanced their arrival data. However, at least one of the main tree species they forage on has shifted its leafing out even earlier. Birds might then be missing the peak in availability of insects that are found on these trees and provide the energy and protein needed by the birds at the beginning of their nesting season. These types of misalignment of important events in nature are called phenological mismatches. There is much research underway currently to recognize where these mismatches might be occurring.

Minority parents and child discipline Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Minority parents and child discipline - Essay Example There are differences in the way children are punished by African American/Southern parents compared to their Caucasian/New England counterparts. Such variations are seen in other minority groups like Hispanic Americans, Korean Americans, etc. Chinese and Indian American parents’ methods and attitudes toward child discipline have particularly attracted comment and criticism. For example, in these communities, emphasis on academic excellence is very high. And parents accomplish this by imposing strict controls over her their children’s personal, family and social lives. The children are seldom allowed to indulge in extracurricular activities, get any grade other than an A, and not master musical instruments at a young age. Behind this grand ambition for her children, there goes a lot of hard work from all involved. And it is due to this kind of strictly regimented, industrious and highly ambitious life-style imposed on their children that they were able to achieve so muc h success in such a short time. The parents are of the firm conviction that they are the best judges of what is good for their children and resolutely act to attain those goals. Hence what might come across as child abuse at first might actually be effective child rearing practice when seen in the larger context. The problems arise, when punishment comes in conflict with state and federal laws for child protection.

Home work communication Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Home work communication - Assignment Example Whereas parent-child attachment may have been developed during the child’s babyhood, this bond is likely to be tested as the child develops his or her own personality. These are, in many ways, bigger problems than the difference in race between the parent and adopted child (Fisher, 2003). With trans-racial adoption, there may be extra issues that the adoptive parent is often encouraged to deal with in his or her children of a different race. According to a research that sought to understand how cultural identity is reinforced by the adoptive parents of foster children of a different race, participants stated that it is quite common for strangers to ask odd questions about the true heritage of the child (Herd, 2012). While there are strangers who will comment positively on the rich mix in a multicultural family, there are others who will make unbecoming remarks. According to the study documented by Herd, there are different strategies with which adoptive parents can respond to uncalled for remarks. For instance, they can change the subject, inquire as to the intention of the stranger, or simply educate him or her on how adoption works. It is also important to realize that trans-racially adopted children do not have the opportunity to learn about their birth cultures by watching their adopted parents in daily life. This means that adoptive parents with children of a different race should seek for opportunities in which their children can be party to positive or constructive events during which people of their own ethnic background are portrayed positively. According to the research participants in the study documented by Herd, adopted children can learn about the special attributes of their personhood by being exposed to people of their birth race in positive ways (Herd, 2012). For instance, Caucasian parents who were part of this study often took their African American children to salons where they had a chance to learn how best to manage African American hair. This experience not only reinforced positive aspects of the African American experience for the children, but also helped in building their relationships with their adoptive parents. Once this trust is established, the children involved in trans-racial adoptions, among other types of adoptions, will trust what their adoptive parents say and how they teach them about the world’s attitude towards their unique family. According to a research conducted by the Eva B. Donaldson Adoption Institute, â€Å"trans-racial adoption is not responsible for the development of social or psychological maladjustment issues in adopted children; rather, these children, like all other adopted children and their parents face assorted challenges, and the way in which the parents respond to the problems hinders or facilitates the children's progressive development (VanderMolen, 2005). According to the participants in this study, the issue of adoptive identity challenges all children regardles s of race. It is common for adopted children, for instance, to downplay the adoption issue when in school because they want to fit in and not seem odd. However, inside, they have to deal with fears such as losing their adoptive parents and questions about why their real parents gave them up. There are many advantages to adopting children from a different race (Woolf, 2006). Psychological research studies have established that trans-racially adopted children tend to deal with

Health Care Managmeant Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Health Care Managmeant - Assignment Example Most often, the change starts small to include daily tasks of the employees in a shorter span of time. Large scale on the other hand, embraces to change the entire culture of the organization with a longer duration. For changes to occur in a small scale organization, the behavior of the employees has to be positively influenced. Observation has it that employees tend to comply readily if they know that a reward is at stake as an incentive of their performance. While implementing change without something to compensate the employees’ effort will take time or even resisted. This observation is supported with Vrooms expectancy theory where it states that motivation depends on certain variables (Miner, 2007). One is valence which simply means reward. Employees are expected to work hard if they know the valence available is of their interest. For instance, promotion as a valence is something vital for employees so the tendency is for them to positively accept change whether the chan ge would include additional responsibilities or trainings. Such behavior may result to another variable that is expectancy believed to be the effort that results in the attainment of the desired performance.

Unit3 - Individual Project - Project starting, Planning, Executing and Essay

Unit3 - Individual Project - Project starting, Planning, Executing and Closing - Essay Example Sales department in the process requires additional personnel due to their extensive work in the organization. The hiring process however must be a competitive one so as to obtain the best brains that can participate in the market research and analysis. Therefore, the company will advertise for the positions and applications made through the human resource manager. Qualified candidates will be shortlisted and notified for the interviews date. The interviews are then done in phases through a panel selected by the company so that biasedness is minimized and every one given an equal chance in the job select (Cleland & Gareis, 2006). After the interviews, suited candidates are selected and taken under reviews again so that best out of the best can be determined before recruitment takes place. Sales department is quiet critical in the success of the company as it is the department that ensures revenues are conveyed in the organization. Its activities in the market determines what manufacturing department will produce since it establishes the equilibrium in supply and demand for the company (Hasen, 2012). Hence for any extra unit that the corporation will produce, sales department must work more hard for it to be sold in the market hence need for training of the personnel. The department is also concerned with identifying the market niche of the various markets so as to establish new customers to the company’s product and its development to increase productivity and revenues to the firm while acquiring a bigger market share to the company. This can only be achieved by well trained personnel in the modern science so that they can undertake an extensive research on issues and have a broader knowledge of the market segmentations and operations. (Mathur, 2006) To achieve this, the personnel must be trained to be well equipped with the research methodologies as the success of the company achieving the goals and objectives solely lies with the sales department and

Halophytes in deforestation and reforestation Essay

Halophytes in deforestation and reforestation - Essay Example Tremendous increase in world population, at one hand, limits the available cultivable farmlands for crop production while demands increase in crop production simultaneously (Koyro et al., 2011). An estimated increase of about 50% in global food production is estimated to be required by the year 2050 (Flowers, 2004). Forests that were depleted for purpose of agricultural land extension in past years, are now been exploited for urbanization and industrialization as the soil of those lands has been degraded, illustrates various soil problems and hence, led to reduction in availability of cultivable farmlands (Geist & Lambin, 2002). Increase in agriculture by expanding land for crops production in order to secure food for every individual is becoming difficult; for this reason the recent tendency has been to increase the per unit area production of crops which in technical terms is referred to as intensification of agriculture (Binswanger & Ruttan, 1978). This prospect can only be explor ed if the amount of nutrients that are available in the soil are sufficient to nourish and raise crops in repeated cycles (Lele & Stone, 1989). However, in present scenario, environmental degradation has emerged as one of the undesirable and prominent effects due to such rapid and frequent crop plantation and association of new cultigens and pesticides (Turner et al., 1993). In current situation, even after advancement of current technologies enabling researchers to supress all these environment problems, increase in crop yield is not as much sufficient as it should be to fulfill raising needs of food supply (Berry, 1984; 1993). Furthermore, soil salinity is one of the major environmental stresses intruding severe limitations on plant yeild and quality in various parts of the world (Flower & Colmer, 2008). Youssef (2009) has reported that nearly 20-50% of world’s irrigable land area is affected due to salinity. In the view of Koyro et al., (2008) nearly 7% of world’s t otal land area demonstrates salinity induced damage. The top most soil layer of forest floor is moist due to dense forest canopy that covers the soil surface and prevents access of the sunlight to the deeper layers of soil. This converts into dry soil due to high concentrations of salt as a result of deforestation where high evaporation rates are recorded as temperature of forest soil increases due to removal of forest canopy.

Unit3 - Individual Project - Project starting, Planning, Executing and Essay

Unit3 - Individual Project - Project starting, Planning, Executing and Closing - Essay Example Sales department in the process requires additional personnel due to their extensive work in the organization. The hiring process however must be a competitive one so as to obtain the best brains that can participate in the market research and analysis. Therefore, the company will advertise for the positions and applications made through the human resource manager. Qualified candidates will be shortlisted and notified for the interviews date. The interviews are then done in phases through a panel selected by the company so that biasedness is minimized and every one given an equal chance in the job select (Cleland & Gareis, 2006). After the interviews, suited candidates are selected and taken under reviews again so that best out of the best can be determined before recruitment takes place. Sales department is quiet critical in the success of the company as it is the department that ensures revenues are conveyed in the organization. Its activities in the market determines what manufacturing department will produce since it establishes the equilibrium in supply and demand for the company (Hasen, 2012). Hence for any extra unit that the corporation will produce, sales department must work more hard for it to be sold in the market hence need for training of the personnel. The department is also concerned with identifying the market niche of the various markets so as to establish new customers to the company’s product and its development to increase productivity and revenues to the firm while acquiring a bigger market share to the company. This can only be achieved by well trained personnel in the modern science so that they can undertake an extensive research on issues and have a broader knowledge of the market segmentations and operations. (Mathur, 2006) To achieve this, the personnel must be trained to be well equipped with the research methodologies as the success of the company achieving the goals and objectives solely lies with the sales department and

Reaction paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 5

Reaction paper - Essay Example As there is no means of eliminating the human ability to make errors, it is necessary to first do what can be done to negate or contain the symptoms of the problem by placing safeguards and checks in place that will protect both the patient and the caregiver in ensuring that errors made are caught in time to fix the problem. According to the author of the article, this is exactly what the IOM report was attempting to suggest, but this idea was completely overlooked by those who read it. By putting the medical community on the defensive instead of working with it to try to address problems that arose, the emphasis on blame created a scenario in which medical professionals became fearful of reporting issues and attempted to deal with things on their own. This is comparable to a doctor yelling at a chronic patient for not getting better. It is human nature in that case for the patient to refrain from reporting new symptoms in order to avoid being yelled at, but the problem can only get worse. While it is clearly necessary to report those individuals who are deliberately or negligently endangering patients, as it would be necessary to report a new symptom that restricted breathing, it is pointless to simply assign blame without first addressing the original problem. In introducing the nature of the problem, the report does an excellent job of bringing these issues to the front as a means of redirecting the reader’s attention to the true importance of the report, which are the IOM’s recommendations for safe practices. The article gives a very informative and understandable summary of the IOM report, emphasizing the importance of preventing error through system-wide effort. The causes for error are laid out systematically as are the nine recommendations for reducing the effects of this error. This step-by-step progression of ideas is very logical and the examples provided through each

X-ray transient Essay Example for Free

X-ray transient Essay The good news is that there are more binaries which reveal the possibility of a black hole, that which is much stronger than in Cygnus X-1 (Lochner, 2006, p. 2). In the year 1975, an X-ray transient known as A0620-00 was discovered. In the mid-80s, it was found that the mass of this object was more than 3. 5 solar masses. This fact alone eradicates the possibility of a neuron star, since neuron stars usually possess solar masses of 1. 5. In fact, the discovery of A0620-00 may have put into question the feasibility of other theories. Nonetheless, the best finding regarding black holes is V404 Cygni. This star was found to have an estimated 10 solar masses. Several journals have also written about the existence of black holes. In the 1995 edition of Annual Reviews of Astronomy and Astrophysics,there was a review conducted by Kormendy and Richstone, which implied the eight galaxies were thought to have â€Å"massive dark objects in their centers (Bunn, 1995, p. 1). † These cores were found to have masses which range from 1 million to several billion times that of the sun. Their massiveness was determined by noting how â€Å"the speed with which stars and gas orbit around the center of the galaxy: the faster the orbital speeds, the stronger the gravitational force required to hold the stars and gas in their orbits (Bunn, 1995, p. 1). † In fact, this is how astronomy usually measures masses. There are two reasons why these massive galactic centers were deemed as black holes. To begin with, the centers are â€Å"too dense and dark (Bunn, 1995, p. 1)† to even be considered as a group of stars, or just merely stars. â€Å"Second, the only promising theory to explain the enigmatic objects known as quasars and active galaxies postulates that such galaxies have supermassive black holes at their cores (Bunn, 1995, p. 1). † Even though these reasons point out that the galactic centers are really black holes, there is no sufficient evidence to prove it. Nonetheless, there is a continuous discovery for proofs that systems do include black holes. According to Bunn (1995), â€Å"a nearby active galaxy was found to have a water maser system (a very powerful source of microwave radiation) near its nucleus. Using the technique of very-long-baseline interferometry, a group of researchers was able to map the velocity distribution of the gas with very fine resolution (p. 1). † They also determined that the velocity was â€Å"less than half a light-year of the center of the galaxy (Bunn, 1995, p. 1). † It is from this fact that they deemed the object as a black hole, simply because only a black hole can have that much mass concentrated in such a small volume (Bunn, 1995, p. 1). All these results are included in January 12, 1995 issue of Nature, vol. 373. , as was reported by Miyoshi et al (Bunn, 1995, p.1). Is there a possibility that the Sun can be a black hole? No. According to Bunn (1995), â€Å"only stars that weigh considerably more than the Sun end their lives as black holes (p. 1). † For about five billion years, the Sun will remain in its present state. After that, the Sun will undergo a phase wherein it will be a red giant star. The Sun will then end its life as a white dwarf star. If there are black holes, are there white ones? According to Bunn (1995), â€Å"the equations of general relativity have an interesting mathematical property: they are symmetric in time. That means that you can take any solution to the equations and imagine that time flows backwards rather than forwards, and youll get another valid solution to the equations. If you apply this rule to the solution that describes black holes, you get an object known as a white hole (p. 1). † If a black hole then pulls objects in, a white hole would then push things out. The former sucks in, the latter spits out. However, there is no proof that white holes exist, and there are no studies to point out if their existence is a possibility. There has also been speculations about the existence of what is called worm holes. What is a worm hole? It is â€Å"a theoretical opening in space-time that one could use to travel to far away places very quickly (Lochner, 2006, p. 2). † It is characterized by â€Å"two copies of the black hole geometry connected by a throat the throat, or passageway, is called an Einstein-Rosen bridge (Lochner, 2006, p. 2). † As is indicated in the definition, it is merely theoretical. There is no scientific basis nor experimental evidence for such existence. However, it is indeed amazing to think that such existence is possible. Do black holes disappear or evaporate? Even astronomers are not sure as to how black holes end their existence. Bunn (1995) notes that â€Å"Back in the 1970s, Stephen Hawking came up with theoretical arguments showing that black holes are not really entirely black: due to quantum-mechanical effects, they emit radiation. The energy that produces the radiation comes from the mass of the black hole. Consequently, the black hole gradually shrinks. It turns out that the rate of radiation increases as the mass decreases, so the black hole continues to radiate more and more intensely and to shrink more and more rapidly until it presumably vanishes entirely (p. 1)† This is a mere theory. There have been no proof or scientific conclusions as to how black holes really diminish. Black holes are just one of the many things included in the vast universe we are a part of. Thanks to science and the technological advancements at present, we can have greater awareness and knowledge of what is within our universe but beyond our reach. References Bunn, T. (1995). Black Hole FAQ List. Retrieved December 13, 2007, from http://cosmology. berkeley. edu/Education/BHfaq. html. Lochner, J. (2007). Black Holes. Retrieved December 13, 2007, from http://imagine. gsfc. nasa. gov/docs/science/know_l2/black_holes. html.

Business Plan For Livestock Fodder Company Marketing Essay

Business Plan For Livestock Fodder Company Marketing Essay The idea of the project was derived from market analysis, its demand and supply of camel fodder in Saudi Arabia. The problems which occurred in late 2007 in camel breed were main initiator of idea to develop and place new camel fodder in Saudi Arabia market. Due to contamination of fodder in 2007 which resulted in outrageous more than 2000 camel deaths the investigation was undertaken and the fodder was found to be stored in bad conditions and due to price efficiency, poor quality ingredients of camel fodder were used. We are aware of substances which were found in contaminated fodder. Designing the new product will consider following factors: Purpose of camel breeding (racing camels, beauty contests, general breed) possible nutrition differentiation Camel nutrition requirements Vitamins added value Storage solutions Packing solutions (vacuum packing) Contamination awareness Camel fodder preferences Price sensitivity Product competitiveness Product shape Quality sensitiveness Due to low labour and semi-products costs, production in Poland will give the competitive advantage based on price. Relatively high supply of ingredients in Poland which are essential to produce the fodder will be also advantageous. Our propositions of character of this project as follows: Establishing new brand which will cater for all kind of camel breeders. Opening site which will cover everything from production through packing and dispatch. Establishing supply chain and finding possible sub contractors. Subcontracting all operations to other companies in Poland. This will be less cost consuming and much faster in executing. Branding the product. Objectives Establishing fully working production line of Livestock fodder, prepared for transport Setting up good distribution channels and supply chain which will lead to cost effective and save  transportation to Saudi Arabia We would like to sustain reliable service to our customers In three years from the start we would like to meet 0,377% of total livestock feed demand of Saudi Arabia Which will account on average  sales 3459,4 Tones Per month This figure can be achieved when productivity of production line will be set  at 70 % In first year of operating, we would like to achieve 60%  of all sales contracted for few years ahead Mission Royal  Camel  seeks to  produce the lowest  acceptable price   and by providing the highest quality product and competitive features  as vacuum packaging which affects on much longer storage possibilities. We value our relationships with future customers and hope to communicate our appreciation to them through our outstanding, guaranteed product quality, personal service, and on-time delivery. Our commitment to our customers and the country of Saudi Arabia will be reflected through honest and responsible business. Keys to Success Due to low labour and semi-products costs, production in Poland will give the competitive advantage based on price. Relatively high supply of ingredients in Poland which are essential to produce the fodder will be also advantageous. Reliable and Motivated Hardworking Stuff Reasonably big financial backup will be also key to success as it will secure operational flexibility Well Developed Business network in Saudi Arabia will lead to fast and effective product introduction  in the  market Long term business relationship with suppliers and clients After establishing company in the market, possible product modification according to customer requirements. Developing good marketing strategy, finding new channels of communication with customers. Potential barriers Critical Paths and areas of Slack Products The Royal Camel  company intention is to produce  a fodder which is made from hay. Product Description Competitive Comparison Distinction  of product in competitive market. The product distinction will be based on price and packaging solutions. Customer in the moment of decision will chose product of a better quality. Our packaging will be main factor which will persuade customer of a great quality of the product. The other reason for customer to choose our product  will be  price.  The mix of price and quality will give competitive advantage we are looking for. Comparing to other products, our will not be as complicated notional wise. It is going to be cheaper and available to all customers.   Sales Literature As a part of marketing campaign, we are planning to prepare product brochures which will be presenting our company, supply chain and describing our products. Those brochures will be sent out to core players on the Saudi Arabian Market, to nutrition and big Camel Farms  to inform them about new solution. On the other hand, we will be trying to enter on the Saudi Arabian Market by articles in agricultural magazines and local press. We would like  also to have  also strong support of authorities in Saudi Arabia because at the moment the situation on the  livestock feed market is very close to monopolistic practices which are illegal and  brings also  lack of market balance and safety.    Technology The technology will be based mainly  on one Spanish company which is in the market for over 30 years in the market of industrial machinery. The production line will include the newest technology developed for this kind of product. (See Appendix 1) Dryer Bales grinders Fiber cooling line Milling line Pelleting line Control panels Dryers Project Organisation 8.1 Personell Plan 8.1.1 Management team People responsible for financial planning and all organizational issues 8.1.2 Supervisors   People responsible for  labours productivity during shifts 8.1.3 Secretary   Person responsible for appointments, researches, data gathering, communication and other office duties 8.1.4 Technicians   People responsible for proper line operation 8.1.5 Security   Whole object security 8.1.6 Labours   People responsible for production 8.1.7 Project Consultants Group of external specialists responsible for consultacy 8.2 Personell Plan- Finantial Summary According to Polish Standard pay rates, we have chosen satisfactory (but not very high) amounts. Nevertheless, we expect 10% rise every year as a performance bonus PROJECT CONSULTANTS ARE NOT TAKEN UNDER CONCIDERATION AS THEY ARE GOING TO BE HIRED ONLY FOR PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS Personnel Plan Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Management team à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬33 600 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬36 960 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬40 656 Supervisors à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬10 200 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬11 220 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬12 342 Secretary à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬6 600 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬7 260 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬7 986 Technicians à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬8 400 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬9 240 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬10 164 Security à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬24 000 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬26 400 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬29 040 Labours à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬24 000 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬26 400 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬29 040 Total People 11 11 11 Total Payroll à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬106 800 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬117 480 à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬129 228 Company Locations and Facilities The Location the Royal Camel Production Line is going to be based in Poland in small city called Pyzdry.   (52 ° 10 N  /  17 ° 41 E). We will need around: 3200 m2The reason why that particular city has been chosen is because of high amount of grass around the whole area. We were looking for compromise between the land price and richness of the green resources surrounding production line. Moreover we were trying to find places with networking. On the other hand, the choice of Poland because of  cheap labour and high amount of ingredients available. Facilities We expect following Facilities on the production site: 9.1 Production line: Packaging section Shredding section Dryers Cooling section Grinding Section Pelleting Section Pellet cooling section Structures and platforms Control Panel Electricity dispenser 9.2 Offices and canteens Canteen with kitchen Toilets Managers office Secretarys office Conference office Technician office.   9.3 Car Park for labours and gests Legal and contractual issues Risk Assesment SWOT ANALISYS 12.1 Strengths 12.1.1 The Price Value Correlation The main Strength and advantage of Royal Camel fodder will be based on desired correlation between high quality of the product  and low production cost. The price-Value Correlation will be achieved by two advantageous factors: The low production cost  will be achieved by low labour and semi-products costs, so production in Poland will give the competitive advantage based on price. Relatively high supply of ingredients in Poland which are essential to produce a reach and high quality  fodder 12.1.2 Possibilities of longer Storage Due to contamination of fodder in 2007 which resulted in outrageous more than 2000 camel deaths the investigation was undertaken and the fodder was found to be stored in bad conditions and due to price efficiency, poor quality ingredients of camel fodder were used. The final Products of royal Camel will be pellets and bales. Both of them, just after Pelleting and baling process will be packed in vacuum way. This will affect with longer storage possibilities due to lack of air which impacts on reducing the anaerobic and aerobic  bacterias evolution. 12.1.3 High Qualified workforce People responsible for production process will be high skilled and motivated due to innovatory motivation management strategy so we plan that no mistakes and failures will occur within production process. 12.1.4 Best Quality Machines Another very important advantage of business will be cooperation with World class specialists in area of production lines. The Spanish Company will cover whole production line design and  engineering. Moreover, they will take care about first two weeks of production period to  arrange all improvements in process and train people. 12.1.5 Multipurpose solution The last important Advantage of This production line offer is fact that while planning whole investment, we took under consideration other investments of Saudi Arabian Investors in Poland, so if there  was a lack of Horse Fodder For some reasons we will be able to fill the demand extemporaneously at camel fodder expense. 12.2 Weaknesses 12.2.1 Price Limitations The main weakness of Royal Camel base product will be fact that its recipe is limited because of its low price. It means that product will be reach but it wont be a Premium product. However this Problem can be easily overcame by implementing strategy which will allow stretching the brand and preparing the production line of expensive premium product. 12.3 Opportunities The idea of the business opportunity was derived from market analysis, its demand and supply of camel fodder in Saudi Arabia. The problems which occurred in late 2007 in camel breed were main initiator of idea to develop and place new camel fodder in Saudi Arabia market. Due to contamination of fodder in 2007 which resulted in outrageous more than 2000 camel deaths the investigation was undertaken and the fodder was found to be stored in bad conditions and due to price efficiency, poor quality ingredients of camel fodder were used. We are aware of substances which were found in contaminated fodder. Designing the new product will consider following factors: Purpose of camel breeding (racing camels, beauty contests, general breed) possible nutrition differentiation Camel nutrition requirements Vitamins added value Storage solutions Packing solutions (vacuum packing) Contamination awareness Camel fodder preferences Price sensitivity Product competitiveness Product shape Quality sensitiveness As an international company we would like to  share the market with competitors based on Saudi Arabia market and Producers from other countries. 12.4 Threths 12.4.1 To strong competition of ARASCO and sssssssss There are two core competitors on the Saudi Arabian Market. Both of them are well established companies which together  hold over 60% of the market. Nevertheless Royal Camel will be able to cover  0,377%  of the Arabian Livestock Market 12.4.2 Seasonal Fluctuations of Demand It is obvious that demand can change and fluctuate. Nevertheless, we would like to contract  orders onwards with customers Seasonal Fluctuations of ingredients  Price Occurrence The harvest period is between July and August so contracting will be done whole year onwards, nevertheless because of natural disasters like floods, dry weather, wind, the wheat prices can change but according to last years experience, the changes should not be higher than +, 10% 12.4.3 Technical Machines used in our project will be the best and most reliable  on the market, nevertheless, breakdowns are possible and we have to be aware that drops in production fluency are possible. Control of the implementation of the plan Startup Expenses Description Legal issues As a Legal Issues, we understand Lawyers expenses, opening new partnership, advisory etc. Insurance   The insurance of the company is very important  in case of fire, floods and all other unpredicted  threats Building costs of factory   The issue of building costs is counted with material (steel) and cost of assembly Building Cost of office   In case of savings, we have chosen the cheapest solutions (office containers) this solution mixes low costs with high functionality. Instead of building new offices, we will buy ready mobile premises which can be assembled into office Projects   All projects of architects: Factory project, Offices projects land development spatial development Web Design quality sample test Before sales, we will have to send around 20 samples of fodder and check its full specifications Assembly of the Production line   The service of assembling, creating and starting up the whole production line by the Spanish Company Production Line Machines: Shredding:  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚     Ã‚      Drying  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚   Cooling  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚     Ã‚   Grinding  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚     Ã‚   Pelleting  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Pellets cooling  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚      Structures and platforms   Packing Land:  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Car park land  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Startup Expenses Summary Requirements Legal Issues à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬28 000 Insurance à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬3000 Building costs of factory (steel construction) à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬2 200 000 Building Cost of office à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬19 000 Projects à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬4 300 Web Design à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬1 000 quality sample test à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬700 Assembly of the Production line à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬232 000 building car park à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬10 000 Total Start-up Expenses à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬2 495 000

The Lasting Effects of the Columbian Exchange During the Age of Discove

The Lasting Effects of the Columbian Exchange During the Age of Discovery It should no longer come as any great surprise that Columbus was not the first to discover the Americas--Carthaginians, Vikings, and even St. Brendan may have set foot on the Western Hemisphere long before Columbus crossed the Atlantic. But none of these incidental contacts made the impact that Columbus did. Columbus and company were bound to bring more than the benefits of Christianity and double entry bookkeeping to America. His voyages started the Columbian Exchange, a hemispherical swap of peoples, plants, animals and diseases that transformed not only the world he had discovered but also the one he had left. The Old and New Worlds had been separated for millions of years before this voyage (except for periodic reconnections in the far north during the Ice Ages). This period of separation resulted in great species divergence and evolvement. There were still many similar species, such as deer and elm, but Europe had nothing like hummingbirds, rattlesnakes, and hickory and pecan trees. The differences were even greater in the southern hemispheres; the biggest mammal in Africa was the elephant, and the biggest mammal in South America was the cow-sized tapir. Both of these environmental systems struggled for a delicate sense of balance and homeostasis-- but their collision in 1492 began a whole new time of competition and struggle for dominance. The environmental impact of such a collision is enormous and should be looked at as part of our understanding of the Age of Discovery. PLANTS Thomas Jefferson once said that, " The greatest service which can be rendered to any country is to add a useful plant to its culture." By this standard, Col... ...opened new windows to science and to all knowledge. The results of the Columbian Exchange come with mixed feelings, owing to the degree of death and slavery that such a clash of natures caused. But whatever the outcome of the two worlds "re-uniting," the Exchange was a major event in the process of discovery. Suggested Readings Crosby, Alfred W. The Columbus Voyages, the Columbian Exchange, and Their Historians: Essays on Global and Comparitive History. Washington, D.C.:American Historical Association, 1987. ---. The Voyages of Columbus: A Turning Point in World History. Bloomington, IN: ERIC Clearinghouse for Social Studies/Social Science Education, 1989. Patrick, John J. "Columbus in the Curriculum: Ideas and Resources for Teachers of History in Elementary and Secondary Schools." International Journal of Social Education. 7.1

Kafka

This simple yet ingenious quote by Kafka does make one stop and think, is life really that meaningless? How can one concur if life is meaningless or not? Before these questions can be answered, one must ask, what is meaning? Amazingly enough, meaning is something we create ourselves. We attach meaning to everything around us whether it be language, a person, an item, or even a pencil.Meaning comes from within us, making us the sole contributor to our own existence. Therefore, nothing has meaning unless one was to ttach meaning to it, and to attach meaning to anything proves one has created an identity, and that identity allows one to exist. Mortal life by definition comes to an end whether one likes it or not, and because of this, we are always facing the pressure of extinction. The way we cope with this pressure is by giving meaning to the things we do, the things we love, and all the other things which matters in ones life.To give ourselves an identity in which we exist in this wor ld and to leave behind a trace of our existence. Although it is truly evident that meaning comes from within the individual, others might think differently. One of the main arguments against meaning coming from the individual is that we were already given meaning since birth, given a set of beliefs and morals to follow, so how does one create meaning if it was already given to us from generation through generation?What they do not know is that meaning is something we gain through experience, and experience is not something we have from birth. Another valid argument would be that this universe does not need meaning and therefore it is not important to have meaning or create meaning. However, meaning is all around us and whether one likes it or not, we were built to reate meaning in order for us to exist, and for us to be able to create an identity. Before we dive deeper into the topic of how we gain meaning, we first have to question what is meaning?Clare Carlisle quotes Kierkegaard and explains, â€Å"Even though all sorts of things exist, for Kierkegaard the word â€Å"existence† has a special meaning when applied to human life. This meaning arises from the fact that we always have a relationship to ourselves. † (Carlisle, What does it mean to exist? ) To go into more thorough detail, meaning is the stem of everything human. Meaning come rom us because like stated above in the quote by Kierkegaard, we are the only ones can have a relationship to ourselves.Humans only truly exist through identity, identity is gained through experience, and experience is what use to create meaning. Many other individuals would like to believe that meaning does not come within us, but rather given to us, passed down to us from our past generations. For an example, Annie Druyan, wife of astronomer/philosopher Carl Sagan (1934 – 1996) remembered a conversation her husband had with a young man and it goes, â€Å"At the end of it, a young man came up to him and he said: What do you give us in return? Now that you've taken everything from us?What meaning is left, if everything that I've been taught since I was a child turns out to be untrue? Carl looked at him and said, ‘Do something meaningtul. ‘ † (Sagan. ) Without meaning this world would b complete chaos. A person needs to grow up with meaning as a supporting factor, or else their world would become chaotic and by definition, meaningless. The young man in the flashback is a person who struggles with the belief that he grew up with meaning given to him and therefore once he comprehend the truth and reality of it all, there would be no significance left.Carl Sagan tries to make this young man understand that in truth, meaning is something we can create anytime, anywhere, and anyplace. Sagan's simple and brief quote ‘Do something meaningful' gives us hope because it illustrates that meaning does not stem from the beginning of our lives, but something we have to exp erience and something we have to do in order to gain meaning. Although there are many others out there like the young man depicted in Annie Druyan's flashback, they would have to know that meaning is not something in which they are given, but is gained through their Journey and understanding of life.This is significant because it is imperative for ones knowledge to understand that no matter how lost or confused one might be, they could always create their own meaning instead of relying or is biased on the thought that meaning was created for us. If one was to be biased on that thought, their total reliance on the meaning at which was given to them would collapse when they learn the undeniable truth that meaning has always been within their reach. Although meaning is a controversial and conflicting topic to discuss, some might argue that meaning is something we shouldn't try to understand at all.Alex Percival as a strong opinion towards meaning and how he believes the universe does n ot need meaning at all. He states in his own words, â€Å"With modern discoveries, we have found that the meaning of life itself is pointless, but we are extremely lucky to be here because the probability that any one of us being in existence is next to 0%. † (Percival. ) In truth, meaning does matter in this world that we live in. Without meaning we would be lost with no identity, and would have no proof of our own existence.It is important for humans to make meaning for themselves because we want to exist and therefore we should exist. Meaning is not pointless at all, in fact meaning is apart of ones soul, apart of us. Meaning is a tool we strive and depend on to survive, because without it we would feel worthless and needless to say, useless. Despite the many oppositions against the interpretation of meaning, language is one of the many factors in which humans attach meaning to. One blogger give their thoughts on how meaning relates to language and states, â€Å"Language communicates meaning, and the origin of meaning is relationship.In fact; if we use the idea that â€Å"relationship is the origin of meaning† as our lens, it opens up a whole new world eyond the narrow definitions that confine meaning to traditional ideas of language. † (The Wisdom of Life. ) Language in fact does relate to human relationships. To be able to communicate and articulate our thoughts gives us meaning. Without language, humans would not be able to express their thoughts and empty their minds and this is an important process to meaning because how can one attach or create meaning if they cannot express themselves.It is crucial to understand that language does not get it's meaning from others but it is something we attach to it. For n example, as Professor Jacoby has mentioned in class, â€Å"A chair does not have meaning unless we give it meaning. The word chair to another person could mean something much more significant or it could mean nothing depending who this person is and what significant attachment they have given to the chair. † (English 205 Lecture. ) Anyone can give meaning to anything as long as there is a special significance to it.This is how we gain existence and gain identity. It comes through our experience and how we see things in our own eyes and not through what has already been defined for us. When one speaks about language, often we question what is the significance of many languages in this world. As Noam Chomsky says in We Still Live Here, â€Å"A language is not Just words. It's a culture, a tradition, a unification of a community, a whole history that creates what a community is. It's all embodied in a language. † (Chomsky. Language is no longer Just words or different types of languages that people speak around the world, it is what set us apart from others. It is what defines us as a people, it gives us meaning. With many languages around the orld, one could feel lost or troubled because they a re afraid they could lose their identity. Although that is definitely not the case, language could preserve ones true identity because with language comes a culture, a tradition, a community, and a whole history. With all these factors combined, one can find their identity and create meaning to their lives in their own ways and form.To find ones own identity is truly important in terms of existence, and the only way to find ones identity is through finding meaning within themselves. Meaning also attaches itself to forms of exceptionalism, how we interpret and ruly follow this ideal belief is entirely up to the person. In one article by The Globalist, they proclaim, â€Å"And Americans can only be exceptional if we are well informed and willing to make hard choices and take risks. Apathy, ignorance and risk aversion are the death sentence of the American experiment. (The Globalist, The Idea of American Exceptionalism. ) This is not only true to Americans, but also other cultures aro und the world as well. To make one self â€Å"exceptional† the person needs to be able to make well informed decisions on their own accord and take risks by the ips of the their own fingers. This connects to meaning because the only way we can make our own decisions and take our own risks is by attaching our own meaning to what all of these things mean. To be exceptional does not necessarily translate to ignorance, it could also mean it is their only form of survival.To any culture around the world, their identity is found through their culture, history, tradition. They rely on these factors because it is what makes them special, unique, and superior from others. Just like how each of them have their own language, tradition, and beliefs, hey want to preserve this by giving it a name, American Exceptionalism, British Exceptionalism, and Greek Exceptionalism. This way, they have given meaning to these terms which in return protect their identities. As individuals we all have a specific responsibility to be fulfilled once we take our first breaths in this world.One specific sentence which caught my attention in the article by The Globalist was, â€Å"As citizens, we have a sacred duty to conserve government by the active † not passive † consent of the governed. † (The Globalist, The Idea of American Exceptionalism. Even if we are a citizen of American or not, it does not matter, because every human in this Earth has a specific duty, which is to do something meaningful so that can be remembered for what theyVe done. The government is depicted as powertul, and because we see them as powertul, we believe that meaning comes from the government.The governments rules and laws seem to constrain us, but in reality it's constrictions is what tests our understanding of what meaning is. For an example, in The Trial, a relatable quote from the conversation between K. and the doorkeeper goes as this, â€Å"Everyone strives to reach he Law,† sa ys the man, â€Å"so how does it happen that for all these many years no one but myself has ever begged for admit-tance? † The doorkeeper recognizes that the man has reached his end, and to let his failing senses catch the words roars in his ear: â€Å"No one else could ever be admitted here, since this gate was made only for you.I am now going to shut it. † (Kafka 256. ) In The Trial, it is Kafka's intentions to make the court look so powerful, because in this way, K. is forced to look for meaning and search for his own identity instead of trying to search for significant meaning in others. In fact, the court is so powerful that they have already planned everything out for K. K. ‘s future was in their hands and yet he barely even realized this because he was transfixed on trying to get everyone else to help him when the answers was within him.This message is of vital importance to comprehend, because one must know that no matter how powerful the barrier maybe be tween the person and their journey to gain meaning is, their duty as a human allows them to conquer those obstacles and face their own challenges. In The Trial it is evident from the very beginning K. ‘s thoughts were always ethered to what others thought about him and his need to find meaning through them instead of himself. Whenever K. spoke, he would always pay close attention to others, as though their opinions and thoughts were crucial to him, † ‘Intrusive, thoughtless people! ‘ said K. s he turned back into the room. The supervisor may have agreed with him, at least K. thought that was what he saw from the corner of his eye. But it was Just as possible that he had not even been listening as he had his hand pressed firmly down on the table and seemed to be comparing the length of his fingers. † (Kafka 17. Throughout the Trial, K. is repeatedly focusing on what others think of him, how others does not give him attention, and how others gave him mean ing. His mind was constantly affected by the whispers around him and it affected him to the point whereby he was utterly dependent on other people.Kafka's mission was to make us understand that K. was trapped in the wrong place the whole time, in someone else's mind. When a person is trapped in someone else's thoughts, it would be hard for them to understand how important meaning is if they are constantly looking for meaning in the wrong place. One of the great meanings behind Kafka's works was to question one specific word, â€Å"Meaning. † In the text, K. ‘s conversation with the Priest demonstrates how Kafka views the word meaning, miou look for too much help from people you don't know,† said the priest disapprovingly, â€Å"and especially from women.Can you really not see that's not the help you need? † (Kafka 252. ) Kafka used K. as a guide to help him search for or make meaning. K. is constantly seeking and depending on others to be able to survive an d to exist in this world that the meaning to his life soon became xactly that; his reliance on others became his meaning of survival, to exist. Kafka wants us to know that meaning was not already given to us, but we make meaning. We give meaning to people, things, and everything around us so we can feel special, unique, and most importantly to teel I ike we exist.Katka also wants us to know that K was looking for meaning in all the wrong places and to learn from K. ‘s mistakes. K. looked for meaning through his reliance on others, when he was supposed to create meaning within himself. To exist, we first have to rely on our own thoughts and our own ideas. This significant because our thoughts and our own ideas is how meaning is created. If we do not create meaning through our own minds, we do not exist according to Kafka, and that is why K. ies (Kafka 271) at the end because he was not able to realize his whole life depended on someone else, and his sense of meaning came from t he people around him as well which is what makes one exist. Although, this leads to the quote which was stated in the beginning of the essay, â€Å"The meaning of life is that it ends. â€Å"-Franz Kafka. No matter how a person tries define meaning or try to apprehend it, life does end. So why is meaning so important? Meaning not only gives us a sense of security and comfort from the chaotic world we live in, but it also serves as a backbone to our identity and our existence.By us giving meaning to anything and everything, it gives us a sense of comfort knowing that it is significant or in some ways meaningful to us therefore making us feel as though we exist because we gave meaning to something which never had meaning before it came into our lives. To exist, to give meaning, and to gain an identity is all part of what it means to be human. Meaning nowadays is interpreted in many different ways, but one theory seems to tand out more than the rest, and it's that meaning comes from within each individual and not from an external source.We use meaning to create ourselves, find our identities, and sustain our existence through our lifetime. In these modern times, the word meaning has been modified to each persons own interpretations of what meaning is. The problem is, would meaning ever be completely defined? Or is it a word that us humans can attach our own meaning to? It is definitely something to think about as we progress further into the world of constant change and start to lose the roots of our identity and even our existence.

Airline Demand Forecast

STIMATION OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN TURKEY ENAR TUNC, Orhan sIvrIkaya* Okan UNIVERSITY Title: ESTIMATION OF AIR TRAVEL DEMAND IN TURKEY Orhan Sivrikaya*(Candidate Phd. ), OKAN UNIVERSITY Tel: 0-532-4265392 Fax: [0-212-4652299] Email: [email  protected] com Enar Tunc, Professor of Industrial Engineering, OKAN UNIVERSITY Keywords * Domestic Air Transportation, City Pair, Origin and Destination, Demand, Forecast, Gravity Model, Multivariate Regression and Detour Factor. Total Page: 11 AbstractAccuracy in estimating airline market demand is a key element while an airline is planning its short term or long term business plan regardless of its status quo being an incumbent or startup company. Turkish domestic market of air travel industry has been dramatically grown in recent years especially after the deregulation commencing on the renewal of air transportation policy in 2003. However there is not any relevant scientific research in the literature to analyze the determining factors on air travel demand of domestic city pairs in Turkey.A multivariate regression model is generated in order to fit the air travel demand in number of passengers carried. The model is based on aggregate individual market which consists of on-line city pairs. The model is found significantly representative within the experimental data out of the years 2008 and 2009 including the origin and destination pairs for 40 on-line cities. Then, the model is tested by using 2010 figures in order to compare prediction values with actual figures. Accuracy level is found to be encouraging for potential new airports or potential new routes to be evaluated by using the model estimates. . Introduction The deregulation of air transportation market in Turkey in 2003 has started revolutionary changes in the airline industry. New government having the target to increase the portion of air travel out of all modes of local transportation attempted to encourage more airline companies to enter the market and enabl e them to offer more attractive prices by tax cutting specific to the airline sector. Price oriented competition has worked very well to generate significant airline passenger traffic.Low Cost Carriers have contributed to exercise a sustainable two digit growth by stealing passenger traffic from bus transportation as a result of shortening the gap between relative prices. Turkish Airlines as a legacy carrier has responded to structural changes in the market by applying dynamic pricing policy and growth strategy to benefit from economies of scale resulting in increase in productivity. Big changes in airline passenger traffic in Turkey create a challenge to testify any claiming model built to estimate air travel demand. Macroeconomic or demographic changes do not seem to be responsible for whole boost in air travel demand.Competition doubled or tripled available seat capacity on some routes so that it was required a different strategy to generate additional demand to achieve in satisf actory load factor which is a key performance indicator for airline profitability. Airline traffic is most of the time considered as a significant indicator for the performance of the nation’s entire industry since it is highly correlated with the number of business events and interactions with other industries simultaneously. So, it implies that changes in economies may influence airlines traffic indirectly.However, airline specific parameters like ticket price and degrees of competition are also supposed to be main driver for passenger demand besides the macroeconomic factors. The sustainable success of any organization or company is closely related with how well management or decision makers are able to foresee the future and develop appropriate strategies. The objective of this study is to examine the demand size for air transport in Turkey and show its implications for air transport planning. 2. BACKGROUND It has been seen throughout the results of the previous research in the iterature that one of the most important issue to develop a predictive model is to choose the right combination of the variables which represent the determining factors involved in the model. These variables are categorized by two subgroups (Carson et al. 2010): 1. Geo-economics Factors: which consist of geographical characteristics, economical activities, social factor etc. 2. Service Related Factors: which are related to airline dependent factors. The other prominent aspect of model generation is the level of forecast which can be classified by two groups as well; 1.Microscopic Model: Airport specific or city pair specific data is involved such that it refers the total number of incoming and outgoing passengers per particular airport or per city pair. 2. Macroscopic Model: Region or country specific data is involved such that it refers to aggregated number of passengers in a region or country regardless of origin or destination city. Aggregate Individual Market (AIM) foreca st outperforms the aggregate approach since the forecasting power gained by exploiting heterogeneous information across markets dominates the forecasting power lost due to estimation of many coefficients (Carson et al. 2010).Local area information appears to be more relevant in determining local O&D travel than of national information such as gross domestic product (Bhadra 2003). ————————————————- 3. OVERVIEW OF THE determ? nants for air passenger demand ? n turkey Turkey is spread over a wide geographical area and road ways are not adequately constructed for all direction. Hence, air transportation is supposed to have more shares out of total statistics in domestic transportation covering all possible city pairs. While the gap between relative prices is being shortened, more and more people find it affordable to fly.This study is aiming to find out the determining fac tors which are concerned to turn potential demand into air travel passengers. The proposed model is not only to explain actual traffic results but also to estimate potential traffic between cross cities which are not connected directly or to evaluate off-line cities to build new airport. Population, gross domestic product per capita and employment rate are considered as the leading macroeconomic dynamics behind air travel demand as depicted in the Table 1. Average fare has a stimulating effect on airline demand as Brons et al. 2002) pointed out that ticket price is an elastic driver for airline demand generation. There are also specific indicators for a particular city pair traffic representing interactivity between the concerning cities such as distance and number of migrants from each other. The number of bus registered in a city is indicating the volume of bus transportation which is considered to be negatively related with air travel demand. Since number of carriers as a degree of competition contributes to market expansion, it is also embedded in the model expecting a positive relation with air travel demand.Table 1 Commonality in Types of Variables Variable’s Name| Percentage of Occurrence*| GDP| 50. 0 %| GDP per Capita| 35. 7 %| Unemployment Rate| 14. 3 %| Fuel Price| 7. 1 %| Number of Employees| 7. 1 %| Population| 42. 8 %| Average Fare| 57. 1 %| CPI| 14. 3 %| Trade per Capita| 14. 3 %| Exchange Rate| 14. 3 %| Service Frequency| 28. 6 %| Distance| 42. 8 %| Expenditures| 7. 1 %| * The percentages are calculated out of a sample of 14 different relevant articles. Most of the itineraries between city pairs are not directly connected that means air passengers travel with connecting flights via one or more transfer points.If there is no direct service the dummy variable transit gets 1 and 0 otherwise. Naturally, passengers would not prefer to fly with connecting flights so it is anticipated to be negatively affecting air travel demand. 4. ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION data, Methodology and results Data availability is main issue when data coverage is decided. Experimental model is based on the data of the two years 2008 and 2009 since all explanatory variables are available within the specified period. There are 40 on-line destinations in domestic network in Turkey.This number of destinations can theoretically generate 1560 different origin and destinations (O&D’s) on which direct or connecting flights are possible. However experimental sample does not cover data for all possible on-line O&D’s because some city pairs which are at close distance are not meaningful to fly with connecting flights or the concerning flights are not connected each other. There are 231 city pairs which are served with direct flights, whereas the remaining city pairs are found to be flown by connecting flights via an appropriate domestic hub.Under the assumption of approximately the same number of O&D’s for each year, data size will be duplicated for the two year’s period. Airport statistics for all scheduled carriers are used in the experimental model as a source of the dependent variable. Transfer traffic is removed from the statistics for each city pair, since the proposed model is to estimate pure O&D passenger by using data specific to the corresponding city pairs. Average prices for each city pair are estimated by using airlines’ web site. Road distance between the cities is taken from the web site of the General Directorate Highways of Turkey.Population of the cities, GDP per capita of the cities, the number of migrants between the cities, the number of bus registered in the city’s account and labour rate of the cities are obtained from the Bureau of Statistics in Turkey. Weighted average of the corresponding city’s population is used, while GDP per capita and the labour rate are being converted to O&D level. A variety of different models exist for passenger volu me estimation. Since no single model guarantees accuracy, airlines in fact compare forecasts from several different models.Within this set of forecasting methods, the most demand models used are of the simple gravity type formulation. (S. C. Wirasinghe et al. 1998). The gravity model for the estimation of domestic passenger volume between city-pairs is examined in this study. By excluding unavailable service-related or market specific input variables, and using cross-sectional calibration data, the model is particularly applicable to city-pairs where no air service exists, historical data is unavailable, or factors describing the current service level of air transportation are not available.Average price for city-pairs with no air service is estimated by fall back mechanism that it uses the average price which is normalized by distance of the cities having similar market structure. All other explanatory variables are not service related factors and available for the city-pairs with no air service. The gravity model takes the form: D=?. AaBbCc†¦ This model assumes that the marginal effects of each variable on demand are not constant but depend on both the value of the variable and the values of all other variables in the demand function (Aderamo 2010).In other words, the explanatory variables affect demand in multiplicative manner. Partial derivation of any independent variable proves aforementioned relationship. However, this model can be made suitable for multiple regressions by applying logarithmic transformation. Logarithmic form of the gravity model takes the form: LogD=? 0 + ? 1LogA + ? 2LogB + ? 3LogC +†¦ where ? 0=Log? It is obvious that interdependency is resolved in this form so that multiple regression model can be applied. The proposed multiple regression model is generated by using SAS Jmp 9 tool.Table 2 shows the matrix of correlation between the independent variables. The results show that some of the variables are interrelated. For exa mple, Log_Migrant has a correlation coefficient of 0. 8661 and 0. 8150 with Log_Pop* and Log_Bus* respectively. Where both Log_Migrant* and Log_Pop* are calculated by taking the product of population of origin and destination cities. However, omitting any of these two variables would substantially reduce the model fit. As the goal is to obtain a reliable estimation of the passenger volume, all interrelated variables were included (Grosche et al. 007). Furthermore, it has been said that if the sole purpose of regression analysis is prediction or forecasting, then multicollinearity is not a serious problem because the higher R2, the better prediction(R. C. Geary, 1963). In order to verify stepwise regression fit of the model, stepwise process by backward direction and minimum AICc selection is used. When all independent variables as depicted in Table 2 are entered, the smallest AICc value 2665. 913 is found. Adjusted R2 as shown in the Table 3 is 0. 823991 which is fairly good.In the Table 4, adjusted R2’s are compared including the relevant articles in the reference list. This comparison table shows that the studied model efficiency is relatively successful. As shown in the table 5, the F test also shows that the regression is significant since F statistic of 497. 2411 is obviously higher than the critical value of 2. 32 at 0. 01 level of significance. In the table 6, parameter estimates are depicted. As seen in the table, all independent variables are significant at 0. 01 level of two tail significance considering their t-statistics.Since the coefficients of the regression model represent elasticities of the corresponding variables, how change of any variable affects demand estimation can be determined. The price elasticity of passenger demand is approximately -1. 1 which implies that airline passenger demand in Turkey is elastic. This finding is compliant with the fact that after low cost carriers entered into the market by lowering ticket prices, mark et size has been tramendously enlarged. Domestic passenger traffic grows higher than the decreasing rate of ticket price.Both GDP per capita and ticket price seem to have elastic impact on passenger demand estimation. Air transportation and bus transportation seem to be competing each other because of their negative relation. When air service is provided by connecting flight which means transit traffic, air transport demand is decreasing. This result is not surprising because people do prefer to fly directly. Another result is that the number of airlines participating in each O&D market tends to have a positive impact on the number of passengers traveled between O&D pairs, perhaps representing the ffects of choice more than anything else. Lastly, distance and the number of migrants are found positively related with air transport demand as expected. Table 4 Model Efficiency Benchmark| Research Name| Level of Forecast| Author| Year| Independent Variables| Observation| Adjusted R Square| Demand For Air Transport In Nigeria| Aggregate| Adekunle J. Aderamo| 2010| Index of AgricultureIndex of ElectricityGDP| 23| 0. 923| Air Travel Domestic Demand Model in Bangladesh| Aggregate| Md. Jobair Bin Alam Dewan Masud KArim| 1998| PopulationGDPDistance| 31| 0. 8| An Econometric Analysis of Air Travel Demand in Saudi Arabia| Aggregate| Seraj Y. Abed Abdullah O. Ba-FailSajjad M. Jasimuddin| 2001| PopulationTotal Expenditures| 25| 0. 959| Regression Model for Passenger Demand: A case study of Cairo Airport| Aggregate| Dr. Khaled A. Abbas| 2003| Population GDPForeign Tourist| 88| 0. 82| Demand for Airravel In USA| O&D| Dipasis Bhadra| 2003| Density, Interaction, Distance, Marketshare, Fare| 2424| 0. 57| An Aggregate Demand Model in Hub-and-Spoke| Aggregate| Wenbin WeiMark Hansen| 2006| Frequency, Number of Spokes, Fare, Distance, Capacity, Traffic Type| 897| 0. 92| Gravity Model for Airline Passenger Volume Estimation| City-pairs| Tobias GroscheFranz RothlaufArmin He inzl| 2007| DistancePopulationCatchment Area| 956| 0. 761| The number of migrants indicates the relationship between city-pairs hence it positively affects on point to point air traffic demand. When distance is greater, air transport demand increases due to the fact that people get higher utility comparing to the alternative modes of transportation. In the figure 1, model fit of the experimental data is shown in scatter diagram. There are total 955 observations within experimental data.A test data is obtained from 2010 actual results which consists of 562 observations. The model predicts 2010 figures with a Mape (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value 14. 1 %. Actual data of 2010 is refined by excluding the O&D’s having less than 104 yearly passengers flow and detour factors smaller than 3. Logic of this filtering is to choose meaningful connections out of the all itineraries. Although the model is performing significantly well with a relatively high Rsquare value, small d iscrepancy in prediction value may result in larger inaccuracy in passenger demand estimate because of logarithmic aspect of the regression. . CONCLUSION This study demonstrated that the proposed econometric estimation and using micro data based on local area information can result in substantial insights to O&D travel. The demand model reveals all the quantitative relationships among the used variables, which is helpful for airlines to understand the consequence of change of their decision variables or adjustment of their routing structures, and also useful for the related authority to quantify the benefits of airport capacity expansion and to take into account while airport building plan is being evaluated.It would be advantageous to extend the time period covered by the analysis. This would enable to examine possible differences in elasticity amongst city-pairs. Extending the data back in time would also provide observations of airfares progress. The model efficiency may be i mproved for even more reliable estimation, if more independent variables indicating bilateral relations between city-pairs are embedded in the model such as the number of call between city-pairs or credit card statistics of domestic visitors. References S. C. Wirasinghe and A. S. Kumarage, An Aggregate Demand Model for Intercity Passenger Travel in Sri Lanka.Transportation 25: 77-98, 1998. R. C. Geary, Some Results about Relations between Stochastic Variables: A Discussion Document, Review of International Statistical Institute, Vol. 31, pp. 163-181, 1963. Richard T. Carson, Tolga Cenesizoglu and Roger Parker. Aggregate Demand for USA Commercial Air Travel. Department of Economics, University of California. 2010. Elton Fernandes and Ricardo Rodrigues Pacheco. Air Transportation Analysis: Passenger Demand in Brazil. Aerlines Magazine e-zine edition, issue 33. Adakunle J. Aderamo. Demand for Air Transport in Nigeria. Journal of Economics, 1 (1): 23-31 (2010).Md. Jobair Bin Alem and De wan Masud Karim. Air Travel Demand Model For Domestic Air Transportation in Bangladesh. Journal of Civil Engineering The Institution of Engineers, Bangladesh Vol. CE 26, No. 1, 1998. Seraj Y. Abed, Abdullah O. Ba-Fail and Sajjad M. Jasimuddin. 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Conceptual and Regression Models for Passenger Demand Prediction.Aerlines Magazine e-zine edition, issue 26 2003. Dipasis Bhadra. Demand for Air Travel in the United States: Bottom-up Econometric Estimation and Implications for Forecasts by Origin and Destination Pairs. Journal of Air Transportation Vol. 8, No. 2 – 2003. Radosav B. Jovanovic. Generalised Intrinsic Characteristics as a Forecasting Tool: A dynamic perpective. Second International Conference on Research in Air Transportation – Belgrade, June 24–28 2006. Martijn Brons, Eric Pels, Peter Nijkamp and Piet Rietveld. Price Elasticities of Demand for Passenger Air Travel. Journal of Air Transport Management 8 pp. 65-175 2002. Dail Umamil Asri and Yoriyasu Sugie. Simultaneous Demand Model for Passenger Travel. Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 4, October, 2003. Joyce Dargay and Mark Hanly. The Determinants of the Demand for International Air Travel to and from UK. ESRC Transport Studies Unit, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, November 2001. Catherine Zhukovskaya. Use of the Generalized Linear Model in Forecasting the Air Passengers’ Conveyances from EU Countries. Computer Modelling and Technologies, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 62–72, 2007. Wenbin Wei and Mark Hansen.An Aggregate Demand Model for Air Passenger Traffic in the Hub and Spoke Network. Transportation Research Part A 40 pp. 841–851, 2006. Matthew G. Karlaftis. Demand Forecasting in Regional Airports. Straer 7 pp. 100-111, Tr. 312, 2008. Tobias Grosche, Franz Rothlauf and Armin Heinzl. Gravity Models for Airline Passenger Volume Estimation. Journal of Air Transport Management 13 pp. 175-183, 2007. Chaug-Ing Hsu and Su-Miao Liu. Predicting City-Pair Air Passenger Traffic Using Grey Topological F orecasting Model. Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, October, 2003.